True enough. But we’re also heading into the final days where the iPhone will remain exclusive, which is absolutely the largest factor for most consumers. (Other than the hardcore geek contingent, who really even knows what they MEANS, let alone can examine the particulars between platforms? Certainly it’s meaningless in the console world and among all “consumer electronics,” because by and large they’re all closed platforms. People will just buy the things they want to buy.)

It’s actually still pretty mind-boggling to think about how much the iPhone is still growing while remaining on only AT&T, and how many people are still being pulled from other carriers even though the competing smartphone alternatives have been getting better and better. Just what is going to happen once the exclusivity DROPS? o_O

That’s why Apple hasn’t been concerned with “making a phone” since the introduction of the iPhone. They’ve been concerned with _building a platform_. And it’s hard to dispute that their efforts haven’t paid off in the public sphere. The iPhone, iPod Touch and now iPad are all steadily reinforcing Apple’s mobile/touch _platform_, not just a phone, and a PMP, and a wacky tablet thing.

I see them suffering a lot LESS in that respect because of it. It’s all added value that you don’t get by switching to another phone, and if you’ve already been a part of… isn’t the easiest investment to toss aside.

It’s not “lock-in” any more than buying a lot of PS2 games was to deciding whether to get a PS3 or a Wii or a 360… or ALL of the above. But it’s an investment that the platform holder can tap, and that increases the amount a competing platform has to provide improvements before a user bothers to switch.

And another advantage over consoles…? People are MUCH more likely to own multiple consoles than they are multiple cell phones. There are strict advantages, and lots of proprietary games you can’t play anywhere else. For smartphones, however…? “Making phone calls” is basically universal. All the browsers are aligning behind WebKit and being different flavors of “acceptable to very good.” The mobile app climate is leading much in the way of “bring everything everywhere, eventually” with the lead platform nod to the iPhone since it’s still the most lucrative. So… how serious do the advantages have to be?

I don’t believe Android will overtake iPhone OS in it’s core features, but as we have seen with Chrome, Google is excellent in catching up. Arguments like “Firefox has more extensions” held true in the beginning, but not anymore. The better Android catches up or overtakes in some areas, the less reason people have to put up with what bothers them (e.g., AT&T & the closed system).

If Android (or another platform) makes some kind of leap in hardware with which Apple, due to patents or some other obstacle, cannot keep up, then Apple will lose market share. If a competing platform offers a significantly superior selection of functionality or significantly reduced price, Apple will lose market share. But the talk about “core” is simply meaningless.

Every society and culture and every subculture has turnover. Todays elite will be gone tomorrow, replaced by others, and the world will keep turning.

The possibility of Apple losing their marketshare is a lot greater than any console, however, because the emotional and cultural and other investments in game consoles are much greater than that of phones. People only hold on to phones for as long as they do because their contracts and the phone prices encourage them to. Also, apps on phones are just that much more disposable, on the whole, than games (despite the fact that games have a play-by date).

Most apps are easily replaceable by others with comparable features and look-and-feel. People overstate the importance of look-and-feel by miles, anyway. Most users are simply not that design-savvy or snobbish. If it does what they want in roughly the same way with roughly the same amount of effort, they’re happy.

Apple could lose their marketshare overnight for any of a dozen reasons. But it won’t be because a bunch of spoiled self-appointed Mac developer elite through a hissy fit, either singly or en masse.

Google has been extremely successful in rolling out “half-baked” products and incrementally improving them over time by learning from failure (the famous “Beta”). Right now, Apple seems a little bit too arrogant to me and their changes to the iPhone have been more a long-awaited necessity than great innovations.

Being a software-only company is handy that way. you don’t have to care about what your hardware is doing, you don’t have any. you have a spec that others build to. However, Google’s speed is causing problems for the hardware devs. They’re releasing updates that can’t run on early androids, or they’re releasing them faster than the hardware companies can keep up with. the fragmentation of the android devices is a sign of that, and it’s going to get worse once the carriers are the sole source of end-user hardware.

Apple’s upgrade cycle is longer, but there are some benefits with that too, and they have done a FAR better job of communicating system requirements than Google is. but then again, Google *can’t* do that, because google doesn’t know. In this case, Google is indeed hewing to the Microsoft model, and they’re running into the same problems Microsoft has.

Just one note about what Welch has written: I think comparing iPhone OS devices to videogames is doing the iPhone a disservice. The implication seems to be that people complain about Apple’s control while not complaining much about consoles because they are more critical of Apple than of other companies. There is some truth to that, but I think a more important reason is that people don’t particularly care about consoles, and for good reason:

Firstly, consoles are just entertainment, while iPhone OS devices are much more than that; we use them to manage our lives. Naturally, we care more about who controls the cell phone that contains all kinds of important data, than we care about who controls the toy we play to relax after work.

That’s dismissing the rather large non-game functionality that Consoles have. I own a PS3 and a Wii. While the Wii is more of what you’re describing, the PS3 is not just a game system. it’s the center of my media. If we watch movies? On the PS3. Want to have some music going for a party? Streamed through the PS3 into the entertainment system. People put their photo collections on their consoles. People put their home movies on their consoles. The console market is just a little broader than you’re implying here.

Secondly, people rather DO care about consoles, you just don’t know about it. I happen to read that sector as well, and the arguments about specs and all the rest are just as hot and heavy as you’ll see in the computer markets.

However, if you care about who controls your cell phone, then Android going to a carrier-only sales market should scare you dry.

Secondly, we can easily hook all three major consoles to our TVs, so if one company doesn’t allow a game, we can play it on another console. But nobody is going to carry several phones just to get all the apps. Well, nobody except Woz, I guess.

Really? Okay, go play Halo on your PS3. Play any mario game or Metroid Prime game on your Xbox. You want to play God of War III? You’re buying a PS3, period. Want to play Fable II? Hope you have an Xbox 360.

Console exclusivity is far more common than you seem to be aware of, which is why so many people, myself included, own multiple consoles.

Lastly, from the point of view of a developer, videogame companies at least allow us to get games approved *before* we spend a year writing them.

Assuming you’re allowed to even start. Getting into the dev programs for consoles is a far more involved, and expensive process than anything the iPhone requires. And you think you get approval based on a drawing on a napkin? Getting approved requires rather a lot of work and information without knowing if you’ll be allowed to develop said game at all.

for the Wii: http://www.warioworld.com/licenseeapplications/software/ and http://www.ehow.com/how_5033350_program-games-nintendo-wii.html

I don’t see Apple as “arrogant” or sitting on their success and letting only dribbles filter through; I think they’re moving at their accustomed pace on a gameplan they’ve had laid out well ahead of time. I just think that thats’ going to be too slow now.

given the rampant problems with figuring out if your phone will support the next version of Android that maaaany people are having, google may have to slow down.

I don’t really see that. What I DO see is that Apple’s yearly hardware/firmware refresh cycle may be a bit too slow now, since Google can push back effectively.

Think about WebOS and how good that was looking when it was first shown off. However, it took months to land, and was immediately outclassed by the 3GS. (Not in every way, of course, but in most.)

Think about the G1, the tepid adoption of Android and the slow launch from the starting gate, and the not-anywhere-near-as-impressive firmware Android had in the beginning. However the firmware went through three major editions in 2009 and has a fourth one ready and raring, and once Verizon relented and made a major push with the Droid, it’s blown doors wide open on all carriers.

I don’t see Apple as “arrogant” or sitting on their success and letting only dribbles filter through; I think they’re moving at their accustomed pace on a gameplan they’ve had laid out well ahead of time. I just think that thats’ going to be too slow now.

I don’t think they’ll be offering a hardware refresh more than once a year (unless it’s a minor bump like memory), but they should really look into more meaty “point-5″ firmware releases at the six-month mark, so they won’t seem like they’re dragging as much, and keep a greater edge where they have an edge.

Firstly, consoles are just entertainment, while iPhone OS devices are much more than that; we use them to manage our lives. Naturally, we care more about who controls the cell phone that contains all kinds of important data, than we care about who controls the toy we play to relax after work.

Secondly, we can easily hook all three major consoles to our TVs, so if one company doesn’t allow a game, we can play it on another console. But nobody is going to carry several phones just to get all the apps. Well, nobody except Woz, I guess.

Lastly, from the point of view of a developer, videogame companies at least allow us to get games approved *before* we spend a year writing them.

Google has been extremely successful in rolling out “half-baked” products and incrementally improving them over time by learning from failure (the famous “Beta”). Right now, Apple seems a little bit too arrogant to me and their changes to the iPhone have been more a long-awaited necessity than great innovations.

While I love both companies, I think Android phones could definitely become a iPhone replacement rather than just the second choice.

“deprived users of software they want to see on the platform.”

This seems to be the common knowledge on the downsides of Apple’s development policies, but are there any examples of this in practice? Are there apps on the Android Marketplace that iPhone users wish they had?

To be clear, I’m not asking this rhetorically or to make a point. I’m honestly asking because I’m not aware of any and I’m curious.